Forecasting Using First Available Versus Fully Revised Economic Time Series Data

First reported monthly and quarterly time series data on nine macroeconomic variables from 1960-1993 are given. Features of this so called "unrevised" or " ̄rst reported data" are discussed, and the data is compared with standard "fully revised" data using Granger causality tests. We reiterate that for the purposes of real-time forecating as well as comparing professional forecasts with traditional econometric forecasts, the use of unrevised (or, even better, "real-time") data has a number of advantages over the use of fully revised data. ¤Correspondence to: Norman Swanson, 521 Kern Graduate Building, Department of Economics, Penn State University, University Park, PA, 16802. Many thanks to Dina Nunez-Rocha for excellent research assistance. Research for this paper was supported by the Research and Graduate Studies O±ce at Penn State University. The usual disclaimer applies.